Modelling with PcGets

23-25 March 2003

Fitzwilliam College-Cambridge University-Cambridge CB3 0DG, UK


Contents

Course Description
Course Programme
Request an Enrolment Form Now
Terms and conditions
About PcGets

Timberlake Consultants Ltd, the publisher of PcGets™, invite you to attend a two-day course in Cambridge, on Modelling with PcGets.

About PcGets™ - This software package is the latest addition to OxMetrics and was released in June 2001. The package is quite unique in the econometrics market, as it is an automated software system for econometric modelling. This package is designed for modelling economic data when the precise formulation of the equation under analysis is not known a priori. The current version is for models that are linear in variables. Experiments show that PcGets ‘outperforms’ even the most experienced econometrician. With PcGets all the drudgery has gone – you choose the variables, PcGets defines sensible and statistically valid model(s), allowing you to concentrate on the variable choice and interpretation of the model(s).

PcGets™ estimation methods currently supported include ordinary and recursive least squares, instrumental variables and recursive instrumental variables. Models are easily revised, transformed and simplified; up to 15 models are remembered for easy recall and progress evaluation. PcGets is also applicable to cross-section data and most of its facilities are available for such analyses.

PcGets™ is an immensely powerful, labour saving tool for econometric modelling - invaluable when conducting empirical studies. The incisive selection of algorithms and the wide range of pre-programmed tests make PcGets easily the most useful interactive econometric modelling program available. The roles are enhanced by the flexible and informative graphics options provided.

PcGets™ authors are Prof. David F. Hendry (http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/people/hendry.htm) and Dr. Hanz-Martin Krolzig (http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/People/Members/KrolzigHM.htm)

The Course – Econometric analysis and the use of quantitative models are increasingly part of the business analylist's toolkit, contributing to an improved interpretation of recent developments and systematic, consistent analysis of prospects. The course aims to provide participants with background on econometric modelling methods and demonstrate, using real-life business and industrial data, how PcGets can help them to produce models quickly and how to interpret and report the results.

The Principal Lecturers: This course is developed and run by economists working for Cambridge Econometrics. Cambridge Econometrics Training Services have many years’ experience in providing effective ways to increase awareness and experience in the application of best-practice techniques in short, concentrated courses. For further details on Cambridge Econometrics access http://www.camecon.com/. The principal lecturers are:

Ben Gardiner

Ben joined Cambridge Econometrics in 1992 to work on the construction of E3ME, an Energy-Environment Economy Model for Europe funded under the European Commission's Joule research programme. Now, as the manager for European Projects, he has managed a succesion of projects such as CE's project to enhance the economic modelling capability of the Ministry of Economic Services in Malta, which includes the construction of a sectorally-disaggregated model for Malta.

Sebastián de-Ramon

Sebastián is an experienced econometrician and his primary responsibility is the development and application of E3ME, CE's large-scale energy-environment-economy model of the EU. He also contributes to the company's econometric training courses, and he carries out economic analysis and writes commentary for the company's economic forecasting services and projects.

Who should attend - The course, given in English, is aimed at forecasters and researchers in

  • Economic Research/ Model Building
  • Corporate Finance
  • Financial Modelling/ Arbitrage Trading
  • Quantitative Investment Management
  • Sales and Inventory Forecasting
  • Traffic Modellers
  • Energy Load Forecasting
  • University Instruction
  • and more

Advantages - The course will

  • Review major econometric modelling methods
  • Provide a practical and systematic approach to the modelling of business and financial time series data
  • Provide hands-on experience in building econometric models - each delegate is provided with a computer throughout the course
  • Provide an opportunity for you to meet with a panel of experienced modellers to discuss industry-specific applications related to forecasting and time series analysis
  • Introduce the datamining software package PcGets and compare it with manual model selection

The Cost. The cost of the course are :

1st delegate £1150+ VAT = £1,351.25
2nd delegate £1050+VAT= £1233.75

The cost includes course materials, all meals, accommodation (at Fitzwilliam College), refreshments and the use of computers. The number of delegates is restricted. Please register early to guarantee your place. Further instructions will be sent with the joining instructions.



Agenda
(subject to minor changes)

Day 1 - Introduction to the Package

Session 1: Introduction to the GiveWin and PcGets software

  • Data input and management
  • Variable transformation
  • Batch files

Session 2: Data Analysis and Economic Modelling

  • Stages of building an economic model
  • Unit roots
  • Cointegration, error correction

Hands-on Session

Session 3: The general to specific Modelling Methodology

  • Deriving the Local Data Generating Process (LDGP)
  • The econometric model
  • Evaluation on information
  • Dominance
  • Model selection process

Day 2 - Applications of PcGets

Session 1: Using PcGets for Model Formulation and Estimation

  • How to formulate a model
  • OLS estimation
  • Recursive estimation
  • Instrumental variables

Hands-on Session

Session 2: Using PcGets for Model Evaluation and Selection

  • Graphical evaluation
  • Dynamic analysis
  • Specification tests
  • Recursive analysis
  • Automatic model selection

Hands-on Session

Session 3: Review and Questions


Terms and Conditions

Registration closes 5 calendar days prior to the start of the course.

Cancellations:

  • full fee returned for cancellations made over 28 calendar days prior to start of the course
  • half-fee returned for cancellations made 14 calendar days prior to he start of the course
  • no fee returned for cancellations made less than 14 calendar days prior to the start of the course.

    Payment of course fees required prior to the course start date